石油圈中國石化新聞網訊 據普氏能源資訊7月7日莫斯科報道，盡管俄羅斯是歐佩克/非歐佩克減產聯盟中的一個主要成員，但俄羅斯的石油生產商面臨巨大的不確定性，即參與減產是否會繼續盈利以及是否會向他們需要繼續減產提供動力。低于預期的油價以及比預期堅挺的盧布加上季節因素以及春季鉆井利潤增加很有可能會導致今年年底的產量增加，這可能導致俄羅斯整體履行減產協議規定業務的水平下降。5月份，歐佩克/非歐佩克減產協議被延長到了明年3月底。 根據來自俄羅斯能源部的統計數據，俄羅斯在4月底實現了把原油日產量減少30萬桶的目標并在5月和6月保持在高于100%的減產水平。 到目前為止，減產對俄羅斯石油生產商的財務運營沒有產生任何重大的影響，因為他們主要是在減少利潤較低油井的產量以及增加利潤更高油田的產量。 然而，由于季節性因素，俄羅斯通常在年初生產較少的原油產量以及在年底前逐步增加原油產量。因此，對于俄羅斯石油生產商能否在今年晚些時候履行其減產義務的問題仍存在疑問。 李峻 編譯自 普氏能源資訊 原文如下： Analysis: Russian oil producers may abandon restraint if prices stay low Despite Russia being a leading member of the OPEC/non-OPEC production cut coalition, its producers face significant uncertainty as to whether participation will continue to be profitable and provide the impetus they need to keep their crude output restrained.
Lower-than-expected oil prices and a stronger-than-expected ruble, coupled with seasonal factors and a hike in drilling rates in spring, are posing a significant likelihood of output increases toward the end of the year, which could lead to a lower compliance level by Russia overall with its obligations under the production cut deal that was extended in May to the end of March 2018.
Russia achieved its target of reducing crude output by 300,000 b/d in late April, and maintained compliance at slightly above 100% in May and June, according to data from the energy ministry. So far, the production cut has had no major impact on oil producers’ financial operations as they have mainly been reducing output from less profitable wells and increasing output from more profitable reservoirs. Due to seasonal factors, however, Russia usually produces less crude at the start of the year and gradually increases production toward the end of the year.
Therefore, questions remain as to whether oil producers will be able to fulfill their cut obligations later in the year.
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