石油圈中國石化新聞網訊 據路透社倫敦報道，隨著需求飆升，LNG生產商建造出口終端的競爭正在展開，但隨著與LNG消費者的傳統關系開始瓦解，此類大型項目的融資標準已經發生了變化。 荷蘭皇家殼牌上個月為加拿大一個300億美元LNG項目所做的最終投資決定，是對LNG行業的一次沖擊，該行業正在擺脫近三年的低價格和低投資。 作為對LNG市場的信任投票，殼牌公司的決定有望推動全球數十項類似項目的批準浪潮，這些項目已規劃多年，但尚未最終敲定。 但是最終投資決定代表了一個不同的融資結構，不像以前的大型項目那樣依賴于大買家的承諾，比如最近在澳大利亞啟用的Ichthys設施或美國的Sabine Pass工廠。 相反，殼牌將把成本納入其預算，并實際上擔心最終的買家——作為世界上最大的LNG公司之一，殼牌可以將新發行的LNG納入其全球投資組合。 LNG的需求已經存在，預計到2030年，LNG的年需求量將增加一倍達到每年5.5億噸，這就為更多的出口終端留出了空間，盡管新的終端（主要是美國的）供應正在大量涌入。 但由于世界上最大的買家——日本和韓國，尋求更靈活的條款，而印度和巴基斯坦等其他國家的信譽較差，這些項目一直難以找到買家。 除了美國在建項目的5000萬噸LNG貯備外，美國還有17個像德州LNG這樣的新碼頭需要最終投資決定。從卡塔爾的擴張到俄羅斯和莫桑比克以及東南亞的工廠，其他計劃也遍布全球。 在所有這些項目中，只有少數幾個項目最終將在美國建成，而對于其他項目，運營商吸收LNG進入其投資組合的能力將是關鍵。 無論價格如何，長期承諾在今天都是有風險的，因為隨著全球LNG市場的增長和流動性的增加，它正在經歷根本性的變化。 市場需要解決傳統上與石油相關的LNG定價機制等難題，并吸收改變天然氣交易商業計算的新技術。 惠譽解決方案公司的LNG分析師Emma Richards稱：“整個市場正處于中間階段，LNG正變得越來越像石油，其現貨和流動性交易都比基準指標高，但這是一個漫長的過程，而且令人頭疼?！?這使得殼牌公司、道達爾和?？松梨诘却笮屯顿Y組合公司的項目更容易最終完成，后者已承諾明年在莫桑比克和德克薩斯州進行最終投資決定。 就美國的項目而言，該領域正變得越來越緊，全球最大的LNG出口國卡塔爾石油表示，與?？松梨诤献鞯腉olden Pass項目的最終投資決定將在未來幾個月內做出。 卡塔爾自身的巨大擴張，預計將在明年獲得最終投資決定，將把LNG產能從目前的每年7700萬噸提高到每年11000萬噸。 詹曉晶摘自路透社 原文如下： In race to fill LNG supply gap, project goalposts have changed The race is on for liquefied natural gas (LNG) producers to build export terminals as demand soars, but the criteria for financing such mega-projects have shifted as traditional relationships with LNG consumers have begun to disintegrate. Royal Dutch Shell’s (RDSa.AS) final investment decision (FID) taken last month for a $30 billion LNG Canada project was a shot in the arm for the LNG industry, which is emerging from almost three years of low prices and investment. As a vote of confidence in the LNG market, Shell’s decision is expected to get the ball rolling on a wave of approvals for dozens of similar projects around the world that have been planned for years but not yet finalized. But the FID represented a different financing structure, unreliant on commitments from large buyers as previous mega-projects had been, such as the recently commissioned Ichthys facility in Australia or the U.S. Sabine Pass plant. Instead, Shell will absorb the cost into its budget and will effectively worry about the ultimate buyers later – as one of the largest corporate purchasers of LNG in the world, it can absorb the new volumes into its global portfolio. Demand for LNG is there – it is expected almost to double to 550 million tonnes a year (mtpa) by 2030, leaving room for plenty more export terminals despite an influx of fresh supply from new, mostly U.S., terminals. But projects have struggled to find offtakers as the world’s biggest buyers in Japan and South Korea seek nimbler terms while others such as India and Pakistan are less creditworthy. Aside from 50 mtpa of supply due from U.S. projects under construction, 17 new U.S. terminals like Texas LNG need FIDs. Other plans dot the world from Qatar’s expansion to plants in Russia and Mozambique as well as Southeast Asia. Of all these projects, only a handful in the United States will ultimately be built and for others, the ability for the operator to absorb LNG into its portfolio will be key. Irrespective of price, long-term offtake commitments are risky today because the global LNG market is undergoing fundamental changes as it grows and increases liquidity. It needs to solve quandaries such as the pricing mechanism for LNG, traditionally linked to oil, and absorb new technology that shifts the commercial calculations of trading the gas. “The whole market is in an in-between phase,” LNG analyst Emma Richards at Fitch Solutions said. “LNG is becoming more akin to oil with greater spot and liquidity trading referencing benchmarks, but it’s a long process and it’s creating headaches.” This makes projects by large portfolio players such as Shell, Total (TOTF.PA) and Exxon, which has promised FIDs in Mozambique and Texas next year, easier to finalize. For U.S. projects, the field is getting tighter – Qatar Petroleum, the world’s largest exporter of LNG, said an FID for the Golden Pass project with Exxon was due in the next few months. Qatar’s own huge expansion, expected to get FID next year, would increase capacity to 110 mtpa from current production rates of 77 mtpa. ?
?
未經允許，不得轉載本站任何文章：
