石油圈中國石化新聞網訊 據普氏能源資訊 由于石油輸出國組織（OPEC）和非石油輸出國組織的合伙人透露將削減2019年的原油產量，星期一中午歐洲原油期貨價格上漲。 格林尼治時間11時50分，倫敦洲際交易所（ICE）1月布倫特原油期貨上漲77美分，每桶70.95美元。紐約商業交易所（NYMEX）12月輕質低硫原油合約上漲27美分，每桶60.46美元。一位德國商業銀行分析師在一份報告中指出，隨著新一周的到來，布倫特正在大幅上漲。 沙特能源部長法利赫在周一表示，OPEC及其合伙人將從10月份的產量上削減至少100萬桶/日，以避免供應過剩。 法利赫在阿布扎比舉行的OPEC會議上說：“我們將采取靈活的態度?！币惶烨?，他曾擔任該監測委員會會議的副主席。 他說：“有很多設想在2-3周內可能會發生變化?！辈⒀a充說，周日的會議上監測委員會并沒有提出具體的產量削減。 然而，該委員會表示需要考慮一項維持市場平衡的新戰略，包括扭轉6月份達成的100萬桶/日產量增長的協議。 同樣在周日，沙特阿拉伯表示，由于需求疲軟，預計12月份的石油出口將減少5萬桶/日，而俄羅斯能源部長亞歷山大·諾瓦克則表示，2019年初的市場盈余為100萬桶/日至140萬桶/日。 幾個月來，美國這一舉措將嚴重影響全球石油供應，從而導致市場收緊。 但隨后由于主要生產商的產量增加，再加上美國的豁免，使得制裁的限制低于預期，因此在2019年年初市場的局面將會改變。 德國商業銀行分析師表示，這些因素的結合意味著今年底和明年石油市場存在嚴重供過于求的風險。 這又將引發關于OPEC和其合伙人是否會恢復生產以穩定市場的問題。 然而，星期一的價格上漲似乎受到美國產出增長信號的限制。星期五貝克休斯公司的報告顯示，自5月份以來，美國石油鉆機數量出現了一周以來最大的增長，最近一周鉆井平臺的數量上升了12。 本周市場正在等待進一步的信息，包括OPEC周二公布的月度石油市場報告和國際能源機構周三公布的月度石油市場報告。 王磊 摘譯自 普氏能源資訊 原文如下： Crude oil futures were higher at midday in Europe Monday, as OPEC and non-OPEC partners hinted at production cuts going into 2019. At GMT 1150, ICE January Brent futures were up 77/b cents at $70.95/b, while the NYMEX December light sweet crude contract was up 27 cents/b, at $60.46/b. “Brent is making significant gains as the new week gets underway,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note. On Monday, Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih said OPEC and its partners would need to cut at least 1 million b/d from October’s output levels in order to avoid oversupply, according to the group’s analysis. “We are going to be flexible,” Falih said at the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi, a day after co-chairing the OPEC/non-OPEC monitoring committee meeting. “There are a lot of assumptions that may change in 2-3 weeks time,” he said, adding that a key monitoring committee that met Sunday did not recommend specific cuts. However, the committee did say it would need to consider a new strategy to maintain market balance, including reversing the 1 million b/d production rise agreed in June. Also on Sunday, Saudi Arabia said it expected to cut its oil exports in December by as much as 50,000 b/d, citing softening demand, while Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said market surpluses for early 2019 range from 1 million b/d to 1.4 million b/d. That apparent turnaround came after months of expectation that the arrival of US sanctions on Iranian oil would take a significant bite out of global supply, tightening the market as a result. But subsequent gains in output from major producers, paired with exemptions by the US which have made the sanctions less restrictive than expected, have flipped the script on market fundamentals in early 2019. “The combination of these factors means there is a risk of a sizeable oversupply on the oil market late this year and next year,” Commerzbank analysts said. That, in turn, has raised questions about whether OPEC and partners would bring back production cuts to steady the market. However, on Monday price gains appeared to be capped by further signals of rising output in the US. Friday’s Baker Hughes report showed the largest week-on-week rise in the US oil rig count since May, with the rig-count rising by 12 in the latest week. The market was waiting further fundamental cues this week, including OPEC’s monthly oil market report on Tuesday, and the International Energy Agency’s monthly oil market report on Wednesday.
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