石油圈中國石化新聞網訊 據普氏能源資訊新加坡11月14日消息稱，洲際交易所(ICE)布倫特(Brent)原油期貨價格不斷下跌，導致布倫特/迪拜原油掉期交易，洲際交易所布倫特原油相對于迪拜基準原油的溢價觸及近4個月低點。 消息人士稱，高硫燃料等重質原油的高裂解利潤率有助于限制中型重質迪拜原油等級的下跌，這也有助于縮小EFS價差。 市場消息人士稱，布倫特原油價格暴跌是導致價差走弱的一個重要原因。 近月洲際交易所(ICE)布倫特原油期貨合約在10月上半月的交易價超過80美元/桶，在剩下的半月交易價超過75美元/桶 ，在一個月內下跌超過16美元/桶，周二結算價為65.47美元/桶。 普氏能源資訊顯示，近月期洲際交易所(ICE)布倫特(Brent)原油期貨合約最近一次跌破每桶70美元是在4月份。 分析師表示，鑒于俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯的石油產量創下歷史新高，加之美國庫存不斷增加，市場對全球供應過剩的擔憂壓低了油價。 瑞穗銀行（Mizuho Bank）高級經濟學家Vishnu Varathan表示，目前供應仍然非常充裕。 根據官方數據，10月份沙特阿拉伯產量為1070萬桶/日，接近歷史最高水平，而俄羅斯10月原油產量為1140萬桶/日，創歷史新高。 歐佩克及其盟友國正在考慮削減供應的可能性。沙特能源部長哈立德法利赫周一表示，歐佩克及其盟國將需要減產100萬桶/日，扭轉今年6月商定的增產計劃。 與此同時，普氏周一調查的分析師表示，截至11月9日當周的美國原油庫存預計將增加239萬桶。 如果美國能源情報署周三晚間發布的官方報告證實了這一消息，這將是原油庫存連續第八周上漲，這是自2017年初以來的最長的上漲周期。 歐佩克在其周二發布的月度石油市場報告中估計， 2019年原油需求將減少110萬桶/日。至3150萬桶，進一步增加下行壓力。 該報告還將2019年非歐佩克國家的石油供應增長數據修訂為223萬桶/日，至平均每日6209萬桶。 陳菲 摘譯自 普氏能源資訊 原文如下： Slump in Brent futures push front month EFS to near-four month lows Falling ICE Brent crude oil futures prices have caused the Brent/Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps, a key indicator of ICE Brent’s premium to benchmark cash Dubai, to touch near four-month lows. Higher cracking margins for heavier crude grades like high sulfur fuel have helped in capping the fall of medium heavy Dubai crude grade which has also contributed in the crunching of the EFS spread, sources said. The slump seen in Brent prices has been a strong reason for the spread to weaken, market sources said. The front-month ICE Brent Futures contract which was trading above $80/b for the first half of October and above $75/b for the remaining half, lost more than $16/b within a month to settle at $65.47/b on Tuesday. The last time front-month ICE Brent Futures contract settled below $70/b was during April, Platts data showed. Concerns on a potential global supply glut in the market, given record high productions from Russia and Saudi Arabia amid increasing inventories in the US, have pressured prices down, analysts said. “Supply remains very flush at the moment, ” Vishnu Varathan, senior economist at Mizuho Bank said. In October, Saudi Arabia produced 10.7 million b/d, a near record high while Russia produced a record high of 11.4 million b/d of crude in October, according to official data. OPEC and its allies are mulling the possibility of cutting back their supply with Saudi Energy minister, Khalid al-Falih stating on Monday, that OPEC and its allies would need to cut 1 million b/d , reversing the production hike agreed in June this year. Meanwhile, US crude inventory for the week ended November 9 was expected to have increased by 2.39 million barrels, according to analysts surveyed on Monday by Platts. If confirmed by the Energy Information Administration’s official report out late Wednesday, this would mark the eighth consecutive week of increase for crude stocks — the longest upward run since early 2017 Adding further downside pressure, OPEC in its monthly oil market report released Tuesday estimated demand for crude to fall 1.1 million b/d to 31.50 million in 2019. The report also revised its non-OPEC supply growth figure for 2019 up to 2.23 million b/d, to an average of 62.09 million b/d. ?
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