石油圈中國石化新聞網訊 據路透社11月14日倫敦消息稱，由于迎接美國大部分地區異常寒冷的天氣，市場正努力儲備稀缺的天然氣，美國天然氣價格已經躍升至四年多以來的最高水平。 2019年1月在Henry Hub交付的天然氣期貨價格從月初的3.28美元飆升至每百萬英熱單位4.50美元以上，是2014年7月以來的最高水平。 根據美國能源情報署的數據，天然氣庫存處于15年來最低的季節性水平，比去年同期和五年平均水平低15-16％。 雖然由于厄爾尼諾現象在太平洋上空發展，大多數氣象預報員都預測美國北部將迎來一個相對溫和的冬季，但最近氣溫遠低于季節平均水平。 在11月的第一周結束之前，氣溫比長期平均溫度略微低，并且與2015年、2016年和2017年的冬季開始時一致。 然而，自那以來，美國48個州中的大多數州的氣溫急劇下降，導致累計供暖需求急劇上升。 根據美國政府的氣候預測中心的數據，預計下周北部和東部大部分人口中心的氣溫比平均水平更冷。 如果預測是正確的，這將是三年來首次低于平均起始溫度，并加大了本已緊張的天然氣供應的壓力。 由于市場試圖盡可能地限制消費，異常寒冷天氣與極低天然氣庫存綜合起來導致近期天然氣價格飆升。 價格上漲應該鼓勵燃氣發電廠限制未來幾周的運營時間以節約庫存，而價格差異應該導致最大限度地轉向煤炭發電。 如果基準天然氣價格上漲到足夠高，它們也可能阻礙液化天然氣出口。 但低庫存使得市場非常脆弱，價格飆升可能會在冬季晚些時候再次出現，以應對任何長時間的寒冷天氣。 陳菲 摘譯自 路透社 原文如下： COLUMN-U.S. natural gas prices leap to four-year high amid low stocks U.S. natural gas prices have leapt to the highest level for more than four years as the market tries to conserve scarce gas stocks in the face of unusually cold weather settling across much of the country. Futures prices for gas delivered at Henry Hub in January 2019 have surged to more than $4.50 per million British thermal units, up from just $3.28 at the start of the month, and the highest since July 2014. Gas stocks are at the lowest seasonal level for 15 years and around 15-16 percent lower than at the same point last year and the five-year average, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. While most forecasters have been predicting a relatively mild winter across the northern United States because of the El Ni?o developing over the Pacific, temperatures have recently fallen far below the seasonal average. Until the end of the first week in November, temperatures had been slightly milder than the long-run average and in line with the start of winter in 2015, 2016 and 2017. Since then, however, temperatures have plunged well below normal across most of the lower 48 states pushing cumulative heating demand up sharply (tmsnrt.rs/2QHeLqG). Colder than average weather is expected to persist across most northern and eastern population centres for the next week according to the U.S. government’s Climate Prediction Center. If the forecast is correct, this will be the first colder than average start for over three years and increase the pressure on already-stretched gas supplies. The confluence of unusually cold weather with very low gas stocks has sent near-term gas prices surging as the market tries to limit consumption as much as possible. Rising prices should encourage gas-fired power producers to limit the number of hours they run in the next few weeks to conserve stocks, while price differentials should result in maximum switching to coal generation. If benchmark gas prices rise high enough, they could also discourage LNG exports. But low inventories have left the market very vulnerable with price spikes likely to recur later in the winter to cope with any extended periods of cold weather.
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