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卡塔爾退出歐佩克并不“大吃一驚”

中國石化新聞網訊 據OGJ網12月4日消息 卡塔爾12月3日宣布,它將于2019年1月1日退出石油輸出國組織,從而結束其57年石油生產國成員國的資格??ㄋ栐?2月6日歐佩克會議之前宣布了這一決定,卡塔爾表示,它打算把重心放在天然氣生產上。 伍德麥肯茲公司的研究分析師琳恩莫里斯·阿基耶米說:“這消息不應該是一個巨大的意外,卡塔爾是歐佩克中東地區最小的石油生產國,也是歐佩克第五小的石油生產國。其2018年的石油總產量估計為600000至650000桶/日,不到歐佩克石油產量的2%?!?宏觀石油公司副總裁安·路易絲希特爾說:“卡塔爾的閑置產能很小,所以它的退出不會影響2019年市場石油供應量,也不會影響歐佩克明年減產的目標?!比欢?,歐佩克在面對市場懷疑歐佩克控制生產的能力時,確實需要推敲出一項協議。 對歐佩克來說,更為積極的是俄羅斯總統普京在阿根廷G20會議上的聲明,即俄羅斯已同意與歐佩克合作,以確保在2019年期間根據需要限制生產。 希特爾說:“卡塔爾的退出與其說是對長達18個月的地區封鎖做出的反應,不如說是它正努力把重心放在作為世界主要天然氣生產國之一的地位上。歐佩克的小國在歐佩克的決策中扮演著相對平靜的角色,卡塔爾也可能看到,由于沒有加入海灣合作委員會(GCC),它從其成員國那里獲得的利益可能更少?!?莫里斯·阿基耶米說:“自2017年4月解除對北油田開發的12年禁令以來,卡塔爾公布了雄心勃勃的計劃,將天然氣產能從7700萬噸/年提高到1.1億噸/年??ㄋ柾顺鰵W佩克突顯出該國在維持其在全球液化天然氣市場中的位置的目標?!?王磊 摘譯自 OGJ 原文如下: Qatar reported Dec. 3 it would withdraw from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on Jan. 1, 2019, putting an end to its 57-year membership of the oil producers’ cartel. Qatar, which said it intends to focus on its natural gas production, made the announcement ahead of the Dec. 6 OPEC meeting. Lynn Morris-Akinyemi, research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said, “The news should not come as a huge surprise. Qatar is OPEC’s smallest Middle East oil producer, and the group’s fifth smallest producer overall. Its total 2018 oil production is estimated at 600,000-650,000 b/d, less than 2% of OPEC’s oil output.” Ann-Louise Hittle, vice-president, macro oils, said, “Qatar has minimal spare capacity so its exit won’t affect the volume of oil supply in the market during 2019 or risk OPEC’s goal of reducing output next year. However, it does come at a time when OPEC needs to hammer out a deal in the face of market scepticism in the cartel’s ability to control production. “More positive for OPEC is the statement from [Russian] President Vladimir Putin in Argentina at the G20 that Russia has agreed to cooperate with OPEC to ensure production restraint during 2019 as needed.” Hittle said, “Rather than being a reaction to the 18-month long regional blockade against it, Qatar’s withdrawal is more likely a result of its effort to focus on its place as one of the world’s leading gas producers. The smaller nations of OPEC have a relatively quiet role in the group’s decision-making and Qatar may also see that it has less to gain from its membership now that is not involved in the GCC.” Morris-Akinyemi said, “Since lifting the 12-year ban on development of the North Field in April 2017, Qatar unveiled ambitious plans to increase its LNG capacity from 77 million tonnes/year to 110 million tonnes/year. Qatar’s OPEC exit underlines the country’s aim to maintain its place in the global LNG market.” ?

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