石油圈中國石化新聞網訊 據普氏能源資訊休斯頓12月7日消息，由于目前和即將到來的天氣狀況勝過大部分與五年平均水平相符的庫存下降，NYMEX 1月天然氣期貨合約周五上漲16.1美分，收于4.488美元/ MMBtu，。 周五即月合約交易價格在4.231美元/ MMBtu至4.57美元/ MMBtu之間。 美國能源情報署（US Energy Information Administration）的數據顯示，在截至11月30日的一周內，美國天然氣庫存量下降630億立方英尺，至2.991萬億立方英尺，較去年同期相比下降了19％，與五年平均3.716萬億立方英尺相比，仍有20%左右的缺口。 這一數據與過去5年580億立方英尺的平均水平基本一致，并且與普氏分析公司調查的分析師達成的預期數據一致。 然而，由于過去幾天和未來一段時間需求強勁，現貨市場2月和3月合約的價格出現大幅上漲。 2月合約上漲16.1美分收于4.378美元，3月合約上漲23.1美分至4.155美元/ MMBtu 過去三天的總需求量平均為1121億立方英尺/日，較去年同期的912億立方英尺/日增長近210億立方英尺/日。 普氏數據顯示，預計周五需求將達到1133億立方英尺，并在周末至周一平均日需求下降30億立方英尺，降至1100億立方英尺 IAF Advisors分析師Kyle Cooper表示，一些模型的長期氣溫預測顯示是1月份氣溫低于正常水平，再加上需求連續四天超過1000億立方英尺，它正在推動市場在周五走高。 然而，美國國家氣象局預計1月份美國大部分地區氣溫將高于平均水平。 普氏數據顯示，美國干氣總產量預計每天下降8億立方英尺，至周五的84億立方英尺。過去兩周平均產量接近86 0億立方英尺/日。 NYMEX結算價格被視為初步價格，可能會在美國東部時間晚上7點公布最終結算價格之前發生變化。 曹海斌 摘譯自 普氏能源資訊 原文如下： NYMEX January natural gas jumps on long-term weather forecast, strong demand The NYMEX January natural gas futures contract jumped 16.1 cents to settled at $4.488/MMBtu Friday as current and upcoming weather trumped a storage withdrawal that was largely in line with the five-year average. The front-month contract traded between $4.231/MMBtu and $4.57/MMBtu on Friday. The storage withdrawal of 63 Bcf in the week that ended November 30 put US gas inventories at 2.991 Tcf, according to the US Energy Information Administration, down 19% compared with a year earlier and at about a 20% deficit to the five-year average of 3.716 Tcf. The storage pull falls largely in line with the five-year average of 58 Bcf and also with the draw expected by a consensus of analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts Analytics. However, the prompt, February and March contracts saw a significant jump in prices on strong demand over the past few days and the upcoming period. The February contract jumped 16.1 cents to settle at $4.378, while the March contract climbed 23.1 cents to $4.155/MMBtu Total demand averaged 112.1 Bcf/d over the past three days, up nearly by 21 Bcf/d from 91.2 Bcf/d in the same period a year ago. Demand is expected to hit 113.3 Bcf Friday and drop 3 Bcf for an average of 110 Bcf/d over the weekend through Monday, Platts Analytics data showed. The long-term temperature forecast in some models is for a colder-than-normal January, and when combined with four consecutive days of demand above 100 Bcf, it is moving the market higher Friday, Kyle Cooper, an analyst at IAF Advisors, said. However, the US National Weather Service expects above-average temperatures in January across much of the US. Total US dry gas production is set to drop 800 MMcf day on day to 84 Bcf Friday, Platts Analytics data showed. Production averaged nearly 86 Bcf/d over the past two weeks. The NYMEX settlement price is considered preliminary and subject to change until a final settlement price is posted at 7 pm EST. ?
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