Chatham House認為INDCs對天然氣影響有限

A paper from the UK’s Chatham House August 11 outlines a far more unsettling outlook for gas demand globally, as a result of action agreed last December at the COP21 meeting in Paris, than perhaps recent energy outlooks from the International Energy Agency, BP and others might suggest.Paris Mismatches: The Impact of the COP21 Climate Change Negotiations on the Oil and Gas Industries* by John and Beth Mitchell argues, given that the gap** between the current round of national pledges (INDCs) and the overall target to cap global warming at no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, further stringent measures are likely to be imposed on fossil fuels in future.

Whereas the impact of INDCs on oil demand “will be negative, but relatively predictable” at least while transport remains reliant on oil products and until batteries become economical, “for natural gas, the outlook is much more unsettling and unpredictable.” In developed countries where electricity demand is not growing, there will be neither room nor profitability for investors in gas-fired power, without a “managed exit from coal”, it argues.

In developing markets where access to power is critical, the report says that gas producers will have to persuade governments of the role for gas – over cheap coal imports — and whether investments are justifiable: “There is a vicious circle between uncertainty about the market in major potential importing countries, and the unwillingness of investors to support major new large-scale long-life LNG infrastructure and the supply behind it.”