石油圈中國石化新聞網訊 據倫敦普氏能源資訊5月18日消息，挪威將2018年的天然氣出口價格上調了11%，但已經下調了2019年的價格假設，這表明挪威今年將尋求向歐洲供應天然氣。 鑒于歐洲將在明年啟動一系列全球新項目，預計歐洲的液化天然氣產量將大幅上升，因此，挪威有望充分利用今年天然氣市場強勁反彈所帶來的機遇。 根據本周公布的挪威修訂預算，奧斯陸目前預計挪威天然氣出口價格今年將平均達到1.80/立方米(16.89/MWh)，高于挪威議會去年年底批準的第一個2018年預算中的NOK1.62/cu m。 這一假設的上升是近幾個月歐洲天然氣市場價格走強的結果，受寒冷天氣、市場基本面收緊以及油價上漲的影響，油價周四突破每桶80美元大關。 根據標準普爾全球普氏數據，新的假設仍然相對保守，相對于今年迄今為止的平均每日TTF價格為20.70/MWh，但遠高于挪威明年的預期。 在修訂后的預算中，該公司表示，向歐洲供應更高的液化天然氣將影響挪威2019年的出口價格。 一些新的液化天然氣供應項目將在2018年剩余時間和2019年(尤其是在美國和澳大利亞)上線，預計將導致液化天然氣過剩。 歐洲經常充當過剩液化天然氣貨物的“最后市場”，因為它能夠將過剩的液化天然氣吸收到歐洲西北部的液態中心。 該公司表示:“預計明年歐洲天然氣供應的增加將導致(挪威)天然氣價格下降至略低于1.50/立方米(14.07/MWh)的水平?！?“2020年，由于液化天然氣的供應增加，天然氣價格預計將再次下降，”該公司表示。 胡晶晶摘譯自普氏能源資訊 原文如下 Norway has raised its assumption for gas export prices in 2018 by 11% but has slashed its price assumption for 2019, suggesting Norway will look to max out gas supplies to Europe this year. With the expectation that Europe will see a significant rise in LNG deliveries next year given the startup of a number of new projects globally, Norway could be seen to look to make the most of the opportunities offered by this year’s strong rally in the gas market. According to the revised Norwegian budget published this week, Oslo now expects Norwegian gas export prices to average NOK1.80/cu m (Eur16.89/MWh) this year, up from NOK1.62/cu m assumed in the first 2018 budget approved by Norway’s parliament towards the end of last year. The uplift in the assumption is a result of the price strength across European gas markets in recent months, buoyed by cold weather, tighter market fundamentals and the rising oil price which broke the $80/b mark on Thursday. The new assumption is still relatively conservative versus the average day-ahead TTF price so far this year of Eur20.70/MWh, according to S&P Global Platts data, but is well above what Norway expects for next year. In the revised budget, it said higher LNG supplies to Europe would impact Norway’s export price in 2019. A number of new LNG supply projects are due online over the remainder of 2018 and in 2019 — especially in the US and Australia — which is expected to lead to a surplus of LNG. Europe often acts as a “market of last resort” for excess LNG cargoes as it is able to absorb the surplus LNG into its liquid hubs in Northwest Europe. “Europe’s increased access to LNG next year is expected to contribute to a decline in [Norwegian] gas prices to just under NOK1.50/cu m (Eur14.07/MWh),” it said. “In 2020, gas prices are expected to go down again due to increased offer of LNG,” it said. ?
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