
作為世界上最大的綜合性油氣公司之一,雪佛龍一直以成本優勢聞名于世。過去,雖然油價以迅雷不及掩耳之勢飛流直下,雪佛龍仍保持較高的勘探成功率;未來,油市趨穩,雪佛龍將繼續以領先的技術推動整個行業的發展。
作者 | Ben Bloys
編譯 | 白小明
各大石油公司在2016年都經歷了不平凡的一年,如今油氣市場正緩慢走向平衡,美國的產油量也從峰值減少了90萬桶/天,雖然目前油價略有上漲,但許多項目仍面臨諸多挑戰,特別是深水項目。在此過程中,雪佛龍大幅縮減了運營成本,優化了上游業務的運營效率。例如,Permian盆地的開發成本下降了30%之多,Vaca Muerta、Appalachia和Duvernay區塊的單位開發成本下降了30~40%。
繼續保持較高的勘探成功率
過去一年,雪佛龍全球勘探業務持續高效開展,公司的儲量替代率為107%,即公司發現的油氣資源量比生產量多,公司的5年儲量替代率為113%。地震技術的進步和高性能計算技術的穩步發展,提高了發現商業可采油氣儲量的概率。
雪佛龍去年的勘探成功率為62%,近10年平均值為57%。而與30年前石油行業普遍10%的勘探成功率相比,目前的開采率可謂是已經取得了長足的進步。增產技術、完井技術、儲層管理以及EOR技術的進步,共同幫助雪佛龍從現有儲量中開采出更多的油氣。
同時,安全與環保始終是雪佛龍的核心價值觀,雪佛龍也在不斷優化安全矩陣,定制化培訓和流程,幫助每名員工時刻關注安全議題。
主要項目進展
雪佛龍剛剛經歷了一段高資本支出時期,許多大規模項目幾乎在相近的時間內啟動并開展,目前這些項目中的大多數已接近完工,包括:
1. 澳大利亞Gorgon首個LNG工廠開始穩步生產LNG,陸續開始裝船。第二個生產線剛上線,第三個生產線預計在一年內上線;
2. 澳大利亞Wheatstone項目已鉆完所有井,并建成了大多數基礎設施,將于2017年運輸第一批LNG;
3. 安哥拉LNG 項目生產的LNG已經裝船運輸;
4. 北海Alder油田已在2016年第四季度開采出了首批天然氣;
5. 印尼Bangka項目已經開始產氣;
6. 中國川東北3個天然氣廠建成投產。
雪佛龍哈薩克斯坦Tengiz大氣田擴產項目已經達成協定,預計項目將于2022年啟動,它將為氣田帶來約26萬桶油當量/天的額外產能。
雪佛龍與其他石油公司一起,在美國國內開始將重點轉向西德克薩斯州和東南新墨西哥州Permian區域的低成本致密巖/非常規區塊。公司在此盆地的許可面積達8093km2,大多數土地稅費為零或者很低。去年以來,開發井的成本已經下降了30%。就整個行業來看,最初和預估的最終采收率都在逐步提高。
未來技術挑戰
技術將繼續在優化這些區塊開發過程中扮演重要角色。截止目前,行業油氣資源開發的整體趨勢是增大儲層接觸面積,即采用含更多更大裂縫的大位移水平井。這些超低滲地層的產油非常緩慢,但近5年來,初始和最終采收率以及整體產油量都有了大幅提高。
然而,這方面還將有很大的技術進步空間。目前,采收率仍然低于原始儲量的10%。如何能將這一數字提高1~2倍?壓裂液對儲層有一定的傷害,如何能夠降低傷害?
砂巖油藏的模型已經非常復雜了,但其數學算法并沒有描述如何從含納米級孔隙的頁巖中生產油氣,那么如何開發新的可預測的模型?
新的挑戰一個接一個地出現,整個行業的從業者們也在主動解決這些問題。這些非常規頁巖區塊存在著大量富含油氣資源的儲層,將在未來幾十年里驅使油企不斷嘗試“更加智慧的開采方式”。
未來優化運營
在行業低迷期,雪佛龍持續推動各項研究以優化公司運營。例如,2017年初,雪佛龍宣布了ISOALKY的商業化(ISOALKY是一種離子溶液烴化催化劑,用于生產高辛烷值的發電機燃料)。
同時,借助美國天然氣產業的不斷繁榮,雪佛龍也計劃于2017在德克薩斯州Baytown啟動1500 kMTA的乙烯生產項目,在德克薩斯州Old Ocean啟動1000 kMTA產能的聚乙烯生產項目。
總體而言,未來雪佛龍將繼續適應市場變化,始終保持其行業競爭力,安全高效的經營公司,并根據未來不同的市場環境謹慎做出發展規劃。
Although 2016 was another tough year, the oil market is slowly moving toward balance, while U.S. production is down 900,000 bpd from the peak. Prices have risen a bit ($51/bbl at the time of this writing), but many projects (especially in deep water) are still challenged.
Chevron has reduced operating costs substantially, and improved efficiency in our upstream businesses. Competitive development costs are down 30% in the Permian basin. Unit development costs are down 30% to 40% in the Vaca Muerta, Appalachia and Duvernay plays.
Exploration success. Chevron’s global exploration efforts continue to be effective. Last year, our reserves replacement ratio was 107%, i.e. we discovered more oil and gas than we produced. Our five-year reserves replacement ratio is 113%. Advances in seismic technology and high-performance computing have steadily improved our odds of finding commercial deposits of oil and gas. Our exploration success rate last year was 62%, and our 10-year average is 57%. This is a long way from the typical 10% success rate that prevailed when I joined the industry more than three decades ago. Improvements in stimulation technology, completion techniques, reservoir management and EOR have helped us recover more oil and gas from existing assets.
Safety and environmental responsibility continue to be core values for Chevron. We’ve seen improvement in safety metrics, but our ultimate goal continues to be zero people injured and zero spills. “Do it safely or not at all” and universal “Stop Work Authority” are deeply embedded in our culture. Advanced, customized training and processes help everyone stay focused on safety issues every day.
Major projects status. Chevron is coming off a period of very high capital spending, when a large number of mega-projects were all developing in similar timeframes. Many of these projects are nearing completion, including:
? Gorgon’s (Australia) first LNG train is steadily producing cargos. Train 2 has just gone online, and Train 3 is expected to be online in less than a year.
? Wheatstone (Australia) has completed all of its wells, and much of its infrastructure, and should ship its first LNG in 2017.
? Angola LNG has had several cargos shipped.
? Alder field (North Sea) achieved first gas this quarter.
? Bangka (Indonesia) has achieved first gas.
? Chuandongbei (China) has all three gas trains up and running.
Final Investment Decision was reached for expanding production at giant Tengiz field in Kazakhstan. Start-up for the project is planned for 2022, and it will bring an estimated, additional ~260,000 bopd to the field.
Chevron, along with many others, is shifting more focus to the lower-cost tight rock/unconventional plays in the extensive Permian region of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. We hold ~2 million acres in these basins, many of which have zero or minimal royalties. Well development costs are down 30% over last year. Across the industry, initial production and estimated ultimate recoverable rates are trending up.
Technology will continue to play a large role in improving performance in these plays. The industry trend, to date, has been to create ever-larger amounts of surface area—longer laterals with more and larger fractures. These ultra-low permeability formations give up their oil very slowly, but the overall gains in initial production and ultimate recovery have been substantial in the last five years.
There is, however, still plenty of room for improvement. Recoveries are still well under 10% of the original oil-in-place. How can we double or triple that? Frac fluids are doing some damage to the producing rock. How can we reduce that?
The reservoir models for sandstones have become pretty sophisticated, but their math algorithms don’t describe how shales are producing from nanometer-sized pores. How do we develop new predictive models? The list of challenges goes on and on, and the industry is actively addressing them. The sheer volume of oil-saturated rock in these unconventional shale plays will keep us trying to “work smarter” for the next several decades.
Within the downstream, Chevron continues to make advancements in research to improve our operations. This year, Chevron announced the commercialization of ISOALKY, an ionic liquid alkylation catalyst used to produce high-octane motor fuels. Taking advantage of the boom in U.S. gas production, we also plan to start-up 1,500 kMTA of ethylene capacity in Baytown, Texas, and 1,000 kMTA of polyethylene capacity in Old Ocean, Texas, in 2017.
Overall, Chevron continues to adapt to the market and remains competitive while operating safely and responsibly, and planning carefully for a range of possible future conditions.
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