石油圈中國石化新聞網訊 據Offshore網站4月27日巴黎報道，根據國際能源署（IEA）的最新研究報告，由于石油公司繼續削減支出以及獲批準的常規石油項目處于過去70多年來的最低水平，去年全球石油發現數跌到了創紀錄的低位。 與過去15年平均每年90億桶相比，去年全球石油發現數下降到了24億桶。其間，由于收到最后投資決定的項目數減少到了20世紀40年代以來的最低水平，去年獲批準開發的常規資源量下降到了47億桶，比2015年減少了30%。 常規石油行業油氣活動的大幅放緩是低油價導致的投資支出減少的結果。 常規石油行業的下滑與美國頁巖產業的復蘇形成了鮮明的對比。在生產成本自2014年以來減少50%的支持下，美國頁巖產業的投資大幅回升以及產量不斷上升。美國頁巖產量的增長已成為平衡常規石油行業低活動的一個基本因素。 到目前為止，6900萬桶/天的常規石油產量占到8500萬桶/天的全球石油總產量的最大份額。另外，650萬桶/天的液體產量來自美國頁巖遠景區，而剩余部分由其它天然氣液體和非常規石油資源組成，例如油砂和重油。 由于全球需求在今后的5年里預計每年將日增120萬桶，因此IEA反復警告說，一段時間的石油投資大幅削減可能導致今后供應緊縮。今年全球的勘探支出預計將再次連續第3年下降到不到2014年水平的一半，這將導致另外低發現的一年。今年迄今為止新批準項目的水平仍然低迷。 IEA署長法提赫?比羅爾說，石油市場未來的關鍵問題是美國的頁巖供應的激增多長時間能夠彌補石油行業在世界其它地方的緩慢增長。 IEA說，美國的頁巖產業已把其成本降低到了這樣的一個程度：在許多情況下，它現在比常規項目更有競爭力。例如，德州二疊紀盆地平均盈虧平衡價格現在是每桶40-45美元。按目前的價格，來自美國頁巖遠景區的液體產量在2022年前預計將日增230萬桶。如果油價進一步上升，產量將增加更多。 海上石油行業——占到全球近三分之一的原油產量和未來全球供應的一個至關重要組成部分——受到了該行業放緩的特別沉重打擊。與2000年和2015年之間的平均40%多相比，2016年只有13%被批準的常規資源是海上資源。 例如，在北海，去年石油投資下降到了不到250億美元，是2014年水平的大約一半。 李峻 編譯自 Offshore 原文如下： Report: Oil discoveries fell to historic lows in 2016 PARIS – Global oil discoveries fell to a record low in 2016 as companies continued to cut spending and conventional oil projects sanctioned were at the lowest level in more than 70 years, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which warned that both trends could continue this year.
Oil discoveries declined to 2.4 Bbbl in 2016, compared with an average of 9 Bbbl per year over the past 15 years. Meanwhile, the volume of conventional resources sanctioned for development last year fell to 4.7 Bbbl, 30% lower than the previous year as the number of projects that received a final investment decision dropped to the lowest level since the 1940s.
This sharp slowdown in activity in the conventional oil sector was the result of reduced investment spending driven by low oil prices.
The slump in the conventional oil sector contrasts with the resilience of the US shale industry. There, investment rebounded sharply and output rose, on the back of production costs being reduced by 50% since 2014. This growth in US shale production has become a fundamental factor in balancing low activity in the conventional oil industry. Conventional oil production of 69 MMbbl/d represents by far the largest share of global oil output of 85 MMbbl/d. In addition, 6.5 MMbbl/d come from liquids production from the US shale plays, and the rest is made up of other natural gas liquids and unconventional oil sources such as oil sands and heavy oil.
With global demand expected to grow by 1.2 MMbbl/d a year in the next five years, the IEA has repeatedly warned that an extended period of sharply lower oil investment could lead to a tightening in supplies. Exploration spending is expected to fall again in 2017 for the third year in a row to less than half 2014 levels, resulting in another year of low discoveries. The level of new sanctioned projects so far in 2017 remains depressed.
“The key question for the future of the oil market is for how long can a surge in US shale supplies make up for the slow pace of growth elsewhere in the oil sector.” said Dr. Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director.
The US shale industry has lowered its costs to such an extent that in many cases it is now more competitive than conventional projects, the IEA said. The average breakeven price in the Permian basin in Texas, for example, is now at $40-45/bbl. Liquids production from US shale plays is expected to expand by 2.3 MMbbl/d by 2022 at current prices, and expand even more if prices rise further. The offshore sector, which accounts for almost a third of crude oil production and is a crucial component of future global supplies, has been particularly hard hit by the industry’s slowdown. In 2016, only 13% of all conventional resources sanctioned were offshore, compared with more than 40% on average between 2000 and 2015.
In the North Sea, for instance, oil investments fell to less than $25 billion in 2016, about half the level of 2014.
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