石油圈中國石化新聞網訊 據道瓊斯6月23日消息，當前全球生產、裝載和銷售的原油過多，2020年前油市將維持這種局面。麥格理銀行稱，歐佩克可能對此無能為力。這是麥格理銀行石油分析師Vikas Dwivedi的最新看法，這位分析師已經將2018年和2019年原油目標價下調逾10%。這意味著2018年布倫特原油平均價格將低于每桶50美元，不過Dwivedi預計長遠來看油價將升至每桶65美元。需求不是問題，但供應是個問題，因為致密油生產率提高，頁巖油前景看好，全球石油公司實行盈虧平衡所需的油價水平下降。
唐紹紅 摘譯自 道瓊斯
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原文如下：
OPEC Is Seen as Rather Powerless
{Dow Jones]–There is too much crude oil being produced, loaded, and marketed around the world, and that will be the case until 2020. And there is likely nothing OPEC can do about it, says Macquarie Bank. That is the latest view of Macquarie oil analyst Vikas Dwivedi, who has cut his oil price target by more than 10% in 2018 and 2019. This means Brent should average under $50/barrel in 2018, though Dwivedi expects long term it will move up to $65/barrel. Demand isn’t a problem, but supply is–with productivity gains in tight oil, more prospecting in shale oil and falling break-evens globally.
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