石油圈中國石化新聞網訊 據彭博社11月13日消息稱，歐佩克認為，由于全球經濟放緩抑制需求且競爭對手原油供應激增，2019年對本國原油的需求降幅將超過預期。 卡特爾月度報告中公布的數據顯示，沙特阿拉伯和其他一些成員國正在談論再次減產的原因。這些數據可能支持他們在下個月維也納重要會議召開前大幅削減供應的理由。 歐佩克表示，明年全球對該組織原油的需求將達到每天約3150萬桶。這比兩個月前的預測每天低50萬桶，比目前的產量少140萬桶。 歐佩克秘書長穆罕默德巴金多周一表示，非歐佩克石油供應的復蘇開始顯得“令人擔憂”，他補充說，他認為歐佩克及其盟國需要在下月卡特爾會議上就每天減產100萬桶達成一致。雖然周末沒有做出減少供應的決定，但本月的報告將促成組織內部的一致意見，推動新一輪減產。 該組織寫道：“盡管石油市場目前已達到平衡，但對2019年非歐佩克石油供應增長的預測顯示，世界石油庫存增長超過了世界石油需求的增長，導致市場供大于求的局面不斷擴大?！?預計2019年非歐佩克國家的供應將增加12萬桶。盡管加拿大、中國、巴西和墨西哥的產量預測均有所下調。 與此同時，由于對新興市場經濟體發展狀況的擔憂仍在繼續，全球石油需求增長預測將減少7萬桶/天。非經合組織地區正面臨“經濟調整”，全球經濟總體發展狀況仍存在不確定性。 根據該組織編制的外部估計，歐佩克10月原油日產量增加了127000桶。增幅最大的是阿拉伯聯合酋長國和沙特阿拉伯，而供應繼續下滑。 曹海斌 摘譯自 彭博社 原文如下： OPEC Sees Demand for Its Crude Declining Faster as Rivals Surge OPEC sees demand for its own crude falling even faster than expected in 2019 as a slowing global economy crimps demand and rival supplies surge. The figures, published in the cartel’s monthly report, underline why Saudi Arabia and some other members are talking about cutting production again. The data could bolster their case for a significant supply reduction before a crucial meeting in Vienna next month. Global appetite for the group’s crude will be about 31.5 million barrels a day next year, OPEC said. That’s 500,000 barrels a day lower than its forecast just two months ago and about 1.4 million below current production. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said Monday that the resurgence of non-OPEC supply was beginning to look “alarming,” adding that he saw the need for the group and its allies to agree on a cut of 1 million barrels a day when the cartel meets next month. While no decision to reduce supply was taken over the weekend, this month’s report will add to the chorus of views within the group, pushing for new cuts. “Although the oil market has reached a balance now, the forecasts for 2019 for non-OPEC supply growth indicate higher volumes outpacing the expansion in world oil demand, leading to widening excess supply in the market,” the group wrote. Forecasts for non-OPEC supply growth in 2019 were increased by 120,000 barrels a day. This was despite production outlooks for Canada, China, Brazil and Mexico all being revised down. At the same time, global oil demand growth forecast was cut by 70,000 barrels a day as concerns continue to swirl over the health of emerging market economies. The non-OECD region is facing “economic adjustments” and there are still uncertainties about the overall health of the global economy. OPEC’s crude production rose by 127,000 barrels a day in October, according to outside estimates compiled by the group. The biggest increases were from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. ?
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