石油圈中國石化新聞網訊 據俄羅斯衛星新聞社11月13日莫斯科報道，根據國際能源署（IEA）日前發布的《世界能源展望2018》報告，IEA把2025年的油價預測上調了6%，至每桶88美元以及把2040年油價預測上調了0.9%，至每桶112美元。 報告稱，考慮到地緣政治事件、委內瑞拉產出下降以及主要石油出口國作出的決定影響了生產前景，油價在9月份自2014年以來首次突破了每桶80美元大關。 報告說：“在2014年油價暴跌之后，美國致密油產量的持續擴張以及石油消費可能發生重大結構性變化的前景支撐了一種觀點，即油價將在更長時間內保持低位，甚至可能永遠保持低位。但事實并非如此?！?根據這份報告，考慮到當前各國的能源政策和已公布的計劃，預計油價將從2017年的每桶52美元逐漸升至2025年的每桶88美元、2030年的每桶96美元、2035年的每桶105美元和2040年的每桶112美元。 此外，IEA預計，全球石油需求將從2017年的每日9480萬桶增至2040年的每日1.063億桶。 李峻 編譯自 俄羅斯衛星新聞社 原文如下： IEA Improves Forecast of Oil Price to $88 Per Barrel in 2025,to $112 in 2040 The International Energy Agency (IEA) has improved its forecast for oil price by 6 percent to $88 per barrel in 2025 and by 0.9 percent to $112 per barrel in 2040, according to IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2018 report. In September, the oil price surpassed $80 per barrel for the first time since 2014 in light of geopolitical events, the decrease in Venezuelan output, and decisions made by major oil exporters, which affected production prospects, according to the report. “In the wake of the fallout from the 2014 oil price crash, the continued expansion of tight oil production in the United States and the prospect of major structural changes in oil consumption underpinned a view that the oil price was set to stay lower for longer, perhaps forever. The reality has been different,” the report read. According to the report, taking into account current countries’ energy policies and their announced plans, oil price is projected to gradually increase from the average price of $52 per barrel in 2017 to $88 per barrel in 2025, $96 in 2030, $105 in 2035 and $112 in 2040. Moreover, the IEA expects world oil demand to increase from 94.8 million barrels per day in 2017 to 106.3 million barrels per day in 2040. ?
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