石油圈中國石化新聞網訊 據普氏能源資訊 國際能源組織(IEA)在其月度報告中稱,布倫特原油價格的下跌打破了10月份煉油利潤率降至2014年以來最低水平的局面。 報告指出，盡管總體上出現了“急劇”的下跌，但由于差異的擴大，一些低端利潤率有所上升，包括歐洲和新加坡的單一利潤率，這主要受到煉油廠運營的減少和燃料油折扣收緊的影響，和美國中西部利潤率一樣，美國中西部的利潤率因受到在PADD 2地區利用率的降低而增加。但總體而言，十月的下跌是由原油價格的上漲和庫存增加所致。 三年來，煉油廠第三季度的產量首次足以滿足季節性增長的需求，但也足以囤積庫存，從而創造了2014年第三季度以來最高的成品庫存量。 該報告稱，10月至12月的日產量將增加270萬桶，季節性需求下降，預計產品庫存將繼續增加。 如果綜合利潤率再次下降，并在本季度剩余的時間里維持在幾乎不高的水平，那么則可以削減日產量。不過IEA表示，原油價格的下降可能會阻止煉油利潤率的近一步下降。 該組織已將2019年的日產量預測維持在120萬桶的增長速度，這將導致每日50萬桶成品油庫存的增加。 IEA表示，明年將面臨輕質餾分油“持續疲軟”以及來自美國頁巖油增量的壓力。 同時，根據這份報告，10月份輕質餾分油，像汽油和石腦油“遭受了尤為嚴重的”需求疲軟。 IEA表示：“我們對今年全球汽油需求增長的估計是80000桶/日，這是2011年以來最低的年度水平?！?王磊 摘譯自 普氏能源資訊 原文如下： The drop in indicative crude oil refining margins in October to their lowest level since 2014 has been halted by falling Brent crude prices, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report. Despite the “precipitous” drop overall, some sour margins had increased due to wider differentials, including simple margins in Europe and Singapore, boosted by lower refinery runs and narrowing fuel oil discounts, as well as US Midwest margins that had been boosted by lower utilization rates in PADD 2, the report said. Overall, the drop in October was driven both by higher crude prices and a build-up of stocks. For the first time in three years, refiners’ Q3 throughput was sufficient to cover seasonally rising demand but also to build stocks, resulting “in the highest refined product stock builds” since Q3 2014. With runs set to increase 2.7 million b/d from October to December and demand seasonally declining “product inventories are expected to continue building”, the report said. Run cuts could be lowered if complex margins fall again and “remain at barely positive levels” for the rest of the quarter. However, lower crude prices may prevent a further drop in refining margins, the IEA said. The agency has retained its 2019 runs forecast at 1.2 million b/d growth, which would result in 0.5 million b/d refined products stock build. Next year could see pressure from the “continued weakness” in the light distillates complex and the ability of incremental US shale barrels to find home, the IEA said. Meanwhile in October, light distillates such as gasoline and naphtha “suffered especially badly” on lackluster demand, according to the report. “Our estimate for global gasoline demand growth this year is a puny 80,000 b/d, the lowest annual level since 2011,” the IEA said.
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