石油圈中國石化新聞網訊 據普氏能源資訊11月20日墨西哥消息稱，墨西哥國家石油公司估計墨西哥南部的石油需求受限約為10億立方英尺/日。 墨西哥國家石油公司的首席執行官表示，Pemex預計墨西哥南部將有足夠的天然氣需求，以允許其位于Pajaritos港口的新液化天然氣終端運營。 Pemex首席執行官卡洛斯特雷維諾上周在阿布扎比舉行的ADIPEC會議期間表示：“我相信墨西哥南部的天然氣需求將增長到足以讓兩個供應項目運營?！盋enagas還支持Cempoala開發壓縮機站回收項目，該項目也將在2019年滿足墨西哥南部的需求。 根據樸實分析的數據，擬議的Pajaritos浮式再氣化和儲存裝置可能是墨西哥南部地區的重要供應線，該地區正面臨墨西哥一些最嚴重的天然氣供應短缺問題。 因此，今年半島地區的電力價格異常高，因為該地區發電對柴油和燃料油的依賴程度要高得多，工業用戶的需求減少。 帕加里托斯港正在開發的Pemex新FRSU將每天供應500百萬立方英尺。預計將于3月開始運營。 總部位于墨西哥城的能源咨詢公司HCX的合伙人Rodrigo Favela上周表示，Pajaritos液化天然氣終端將在未來幾年緩解墨西哥南部的天然氣短缺問題。 他補充說：“在區域需求增加的情況下，Pemex的生產目標很可能無法實現，因此我們預計墨西哥南部的天然氣短缺將持續多年?！?據Cenagas稱，Pemex在全國范圍內的天然氣加工廠和干氣田的供應量從2017年的19.6億立方英尺/日和2012年的36億立方英尺/日降至2018年的平均每日17.4億立方英尺。 據Cenagas稱，如果這種趨勢繼續下去，Pemex對Sistrangas天然氣網絡供應將在2019年降至14.9億立方英尺/日，到2022年降至893百萬立方英尺/日。 Favela認為，需要重新配置Cempoala壓縮站和Pajarito LNG終端來供應墨西哥南部。 Favela表示:“人們沒有意識到，墨西哥對天然氣的重要需求是供過于求，這引發了額外的消費?！?該顧問認為，墨西哥南部通過Cempoala壓縮站獲得的天然氣供應量將低于市場預期。 他說：“由于墨西哥北部、中部和西部的需求增長，流經Cempoala南部的天然氣供應量將低于預期?！?普氏預計，由于需求持平、國內產量仍在下降，墨西哥南方市場在11月凈短缺約160百萬立方英尺/天。 CellModel表示，數據顯示，墨西哥南部的天然氣市場實際上同比收縮約50萬立方英尺/日。 這種短缺的一個表現是半島地區的流出量減少，半島地區通過280百萬立方英尺/天的 Mayakan管道與南部地區相連。 根據普氏分析數據，10月份Mayakan的日平均流量為5300萬立方英尺，同比下降約40％。 但普氏分析表示，Pemex加快Pajarito FRSU商業運營的時間可能難以實現。FRSU的建設取決于單位市場的可用性以及項目陸上部分的監管。根據普氏分析的數據，FRSU在阿根廷巴伊亞布蘭卡終端的最短開發時間約為5個月。 曹海斌 摘譯自 普氏能源資訊 原文如下： Pemex confident demand exists for LNG terminal project in southern Mexico Pemex estimates 1 Bcf/d of constrained demand in southern Mexico Pemex expects there will be enough gas demand in southern Mexico to allow its new LNG terminal in the port of Pajaritos to operate, the CEO of the state oil company said. “I believe the gas demand in southern Mexico will grow enough for both supply projects to operate,” Carlos Trevino, Pemex CEO, said last week on the sidelines of the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi. Cenagas also is supporting the development of a compressor station reversal project at Cempoala, which will also serve southern Mexico demand in 2019. The proposed Pajaritos floating regasification and storage unit could be an important supply line for Mexico’s southern region, which is facing some of the most severe gas-supply shortages in Mexico, according to Platts Analytics. As a result, power prices in the peninsular region have been exceptionally high this year as the region has been far more reliant on diesel and fuel oil for power generation and industrial users have seen their demand curtailed. The new FRSU Pemex is developing at the Port of Pajaritos will supply up to 500 MMcf/d. It is expected to begin operation in March. The Pajaritos LNG terminal will relieve gas shortages in southern Mexico in the years to come, Rodrigo Favela, a partner of Mexico City-based energy consulting firm HCX, said last week. “It is probable that Pemex’s production goals won’t be achieved while regional demand increases, so we expect the gas deficit will continue for years to come in southern Mexico,” he added. According to Cenagas, supply from Pemex’s gas-processing plants and dry gas fields nationwide has fallen to an average 1.74 Bcf/d in 2018 from 1.96 Bcf/d in 2017 and 3.6 Bcf/d in 2012. If the trend continues, Pemex’s gas supply into the Sistrangas network will fall to 1.49 Bcf/d in 2019 and 893 MMcf/d by 2022, according to Cenagas. Favela considers that both the reconfiguration of the Cempoala compression station and the Pajarito LNG terminal will be required to supply southern Mexico. “People don’t realize that there is an important demand for gas in Mexico that it isn’t being supplied and it is triggering additional consumption,” Favela said. The consultant considers that the availability of gas in southern Mexico through the Cempoala compression station will be less than the market expects. “The availability of gas flowing through Cempoala south will be less than expected due to the demand growth in northern, central, and western Mexico,” he said. With demand flat and domestic production still declining, Platts Analytics Mexico CellModel estimates that the southern market balance has been net short roughly 160 MMcf/d in November. Data indicated southern Mexico’s gas market, in fact, is about 50 MMcf/d tighter year on year, CellModel showed. One place where this shortage has manifested is in lower outflows to the Peninsular Region, which is connected to the southern region through the 280 MMcf/d Mayakan pipeline. Flows on Mayakan averaged 53 MMcf/d in October, down an estimated 40% year on year, according to Platts Analytics. But Pemex’s accelerated timeline for the commercial operation of the Pajarito FRSU might be difficult to meet, according to Platts Analytics. The construction of the FRSU depends on unit market availability and the regulation surrounding the onshore portion of the project. The shortest development time of an FRSU was roughly five months at the Bahia Blanca terminal in Argentina, according to Platts Analytics. ?
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