石油圈中國石化新聞網訊 據世界石油網1月15日消息 今年幾乎還沒有開始，但對歐佩克來說，情況已經有所好轉，原油在2014年以來第四季度表現最差后開始大幅反彈。
與俄羅斯達成的新的減產協議給市場帶來了提振。但對于歐佩克來說，好消息往往與壞消息同時出現。為此，只需看看二疊紀盆地的情況。
根據能源信息管理局（EIA）的數據，本月美國最大的頁巖開采量將達到380萬桶/日。這比歐佩克第三大產量的阿拉伯聯合酋長國還要多。
沙特能源部長哈立德·法利赫表示，卡特爾決定削減自己的產量，實際上是通過穩定原油價格為美國企業提供了生命線。這是歐佩克視野中的一片烏云，但也有一些好消息。
德克薩斯州和新墨西哥州的大量產出對基礎設施造成了嚴重的壓力。據彭博社稱，該地區沒有能力處理此類產出水平，只能在2018年底出貨約350萬桶/日。
這些管道限制意味著二疊紀的石油流動對歐佩克關心的全球相關價格的影響較小。據彭博社的一份情報報告顯示，去年產量激增，相對于俄克拉荷馬州庫欣交付的WTI原油以及休斯頓海灣沿岸和德克薩斯州米德蘭中心交付的原油價值都有所下降。
據彭博社資訊，對歐佩克來說，壞消息是，美國正致力于另一波管道擴張，到2019年底，這可能增加210萬桶/日的輸送能力，到2021年，將增加220萬桶/日的輸送能力。
對歐佩克有利的一面是，頁巖油品種較輕，不太適合美國海灣沿岸配置較重等級的煉油廠。這種質量可以保持頁巖油價格相對于WTI原油的壓力，并隨后減少當地勘探者和生產商的現金流。
問題是，亞洲煉油廠可以采用較輕的原油。如果美國頁巖能夠到達這些工廠，那么美國的鉆探公司將很樂意繼續開采石油，并威脅到歐佩克在全球增長最快的市場中的份額。
原油必須首先到達亞洲，美國出口基礎設施的限制對歐佩克仍是有利的。據彭博社資訊稱，美國港口的油罐空間、航運設施和碼頭容量的限制仍有待解決。
王磊 摘譯自 世界石油
原文如下：
Permian boom holds good news and bad news for OPEC
The year has barely begun but it’s already shaping up nicely for OPEC, with crude rebounding sharply after the worst fourth-quarter performance since 2014. A new production cuts deal with Russia have given the market a boost. But for OPEC, good news often comes hand-in-hand with bad news. For that, look no further than the Permian basin.
The biggest shale play in the U.S. is set to pump 3.8 MMbpd this month, according to Energy Information Administration data. That’s more than the United Arab Emirates, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ third-largest producer.
The cartel’s decision to cut its own production has actually thrown a “ lifeline” to companies in the U.S. by stabilizing crude prices, according to Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih. This is a dark cloud on OPEC’s horizon, but there’s some good news.
Prolific output from Texas and New Mexico is placing serious pressure on infrastructure. The region isn’t equipped to handle such output levels and could only ship out around 3.5 MMbpd at the end of 2018, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
These pipeline constraints mean oil flows in the Permian have less of an effect on the globally relevant prices that OPEC cares about. As production surged last year, the value of crude delivered at the Midland, Texas hub relative to Cushing, Oklahoma — the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate — and on the Gulf coast at Houston dropped, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence report.
The bad news for OPEC is that the U.S. is working on another wave of pipeline expansion, which could add 2.1 MMbpd of takeaway capacity by the end of 2019, and another 2.2 MMbpd by 2021, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
On the plus side for OPEC, shale oil is of the lighter variety that’s less amenable to U.S. Gulf coast refineries configured for heavier grades. That quality could keep the pressure on shale oil prices compared with WTI, and subsequently diminish the cash flow of local explorers and producers.
Problem is, Asian refineries can take the lighter crude. If U.S. shale can reach those plants, then American drillers will happily keep pumping and threatening OPEC’s share of the world’s fastest growing market.
The crude must get to Asia first, and limitations in U.S. export infrastructure work in OPEC’s favor here. Constraints on tank space, shipping facilities and dock capacity at U.S. ports still have to be resolved, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
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