石油圈中國石化新聞網訊 據Gulftimes2月25日報道，國際能源論壇(IEF)秘書長孫賢勝博士強調天然氣在實現可持續和包容性增長方面的關鍵作用，但他表示，印度和中國將在2040年前推動天然氣市場的發展。 他說，這兩個亞洲國家將成為未來20年的主要消費國，非洲和中東緊隨其后。周四，他在這里發表了2019年天然氣出口國論壇(GECF)月度講座系列的第二版。 到2040年，印度對天然氣的需求預計將增長4.9%，而中國的需求將增長4.7%。 他說，從現在到2040年，非洲的需求預計將增長3.3%，而中東的需求將增長2%。 孫賢勝表示，到2040年，全球最大經濟體美國的需求將增長0.7%。 在產量方面，IEF秘書長指出，到2040年，非洲將以3.7%的速度增長。他說，在此期間，莫桑比克將以12.2%的速度推動非洲的產量。 到2040年，中東地區的天然氣產量將以2.2%的速度增長，卡塔爾和伊朗將主導天然氣生產。 在亞太地區(2%)，澳大利亞和中國將分別以3%和3.9%的比例成為主要生產國。 在講話中，孫賢勝強調了天然氣在實現可持續和包容性增長方面的關鍵作用。 他說，包括歐佩克和國際能源機構在內的所有主要預測機構都證明了這一點。 “事實上，到2040年，天然氣在全球能源結構中的份額將不低于25%?！彼赋?。 這一數字也與GECF的《2040年全球天然氣展望》中預測的數字相符。 “天然氣將繼續獲得動力，因為它可以成為巴黎協議目標的解決方案?！?孫賢勝表示。 在談到生產商時，他說，預計市場上將出現幾個新的新興生產商，但卡塔爾在預測期間將繼續保持穩定的生產商地位。 在消費者方面，IEF秘書長提到將轉向亞洲，中國和印度的增長速度最快。 孫賢勝還呼吁在政策和投資決策方面進行合作，并呼吁建立基礎設施和定價機制。為了最終實現能源安全供應，他強調“國際和地區能源合作是解決方案”。 在這里，他贊揚了GECF的作用，并呼吁該組織為對話作出“寶貴貢獻”。 為加強這一對話，GECF將于下周參加“第九屆IEA-IEF-OPEC能源展望研討會”，GECF將是第四個合作伙伴。 孔麗煒 摘譯自Gulftimes 原文如下： India, China to drive natural gas market until 2040: IEF secretary general India and China will drive the natural gas market until 2040, International Energy Forum (IEF) secretary general Dr Sun Xiansheng said even as he underlined natural gas’s “critical role in achieving sustainable and inclusive growth”. The two Asian countries will be the major consumers over the next two decades followed by Africa and the Middle East, he said while delivering the second edition of the 2019 series of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum’s (GECF) monthly lecture here on Thursday. Indian demand for gas is estimated to grow at 4.9% through 2040 while that of China at 4.7%, Xiansheng said while delivering the lecture entitled “Global Energy Security: The Role of Gas in Sustainable and Inclusive Growth” at the GECF’s headquarters in Doha. Africa’s demand will grow at an estimated 3.3% between now and 2040, while the Middle East at 2% during the period, he said. Demand in the US, the world’s largest economy, will grow at 0.7% through 2040, Xiansheng said. In terms of production, the IEF secretary general noted that Africa will grow at an estimated 3.7% until 2040. Mozambique will drive the African production at 12.2% during the period, he said. The Middle East will follow with a growth rate of 2.2% with Qatar and Iran leading gas production until 2040. In Asia–Pacific (2%), Australia and China will be major producers at 3% and 3.9% respectively. In his speech, Xiansheng underlined the critical role of natural gas in achieving sustainable and inclusive growth. This is a fact, he said, that has been proven by all major forecasting agencies, including Opec and the International Energy Agency. “In fact, the share of gas in the global energy mix will be no less than 25% by 2040,” he noted. The figure also corresponds with the figures projected in the GECF’s own Global Gas Outlook 2040. “Gas will continue to get momentum as it can be a solution to the Paris Agreement Goals,” Xiansheng stated. Looking at producers, he said several new emerging producers are expected in the market, but Qatar will continue to be a steady producer through the forecasted period. In terms of the consumers, the IEF secretary general mentioned there would be a shift to Asia, with China and India having the fastest growth rate. Xiansheng also called for collaboration in terms of policy and investment decisions and a necessity to develop infrastructure and pricing mechanisms. In order to ultimately reach energy security supply, he stressed that “international and regional energy cooperation is the solution”. This is where he praised the role of the GECF and called for the organisation’s “valued contributions” to the dialogue. In order to enhance this dialogue, the GECF will participate in the ‘9th IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on energy outlook’ next week, of which the GECF will be the fourth partner. ?
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