石油圈中國石化新聞網訊 據AzerNews網站2019年3月9日報道，阿塞拜疆Trend通訊社日前援引伍德麥肯茲（Wood Mackenzie）研究和咨詢公司的統計數據報道說，全球上游行業的支出2020年前將恢復到5000億美元以上。 伍德麥肯茲說：“2016年和2017年，全球上游行業的支出從4500億美元的低點有所上升，但還遠遠不夠，因為2014年全球上游行業的支出峰值達到了7500億美元。我們認為，受美國大陸項目、一系列深水項目和液化天然氣（LNG）投資新階段的推動，到2020年前，全球上游行業支出將恢復到5000億美元以上。這是一個緩慢的復蘇，在地理位置上非常不完整，距離被稱為新的繁榮還有很長的路要走?！?伍德麥肯茲指出：“石油和天然氣公司又開始賺錢了。在運營和財務上，所有的燈光都是綠色的——產量上升了，成本下降了，利潤上升了。與5年前每桶100美元的自由現金流相比，石油巨頭現在每桶60美元獲得的自由現金流更多?！?伍德麥肯茲認為，服務業的情況并非如此。自2014年泡沫破滅以來，服務業一直處于痛苦時期。許多服務公司的回報率仍遠低于危機前的水平。 “全球上游投資只是在緩慢走出低迷。服務業在上升周期中蓬勃發展。上游企業剛剛從上次繁榮時期過度支出帶來的可怕后遺癥中恢復過來。該行業決心不再衰退，虔誠地堅守資本紀律，回避增長。紀律越嚴，股市回報股東的超額資本似乎就越多。這是一種共生關系，可能會持續一段時間?！?據伍德麥肯茲說所，自2014年以來，油氣行業的全球產能平均減少了25%左右。 “然而，根據自升式鉆機制造商(70%)和浮式生產系統制造商(50%)等關鍵指標，產能利用率仍然很低。我們預測的支出增長不會收緊大多數市場，也不會恢復定價權。需要拿出更多的產能，”伍德麥肯茲如是說。 李峻 編譯自 AzerNews 原文如下： Global upstream spend will recover to over $500 billion Global upstream spend will recover to over $500 billion by 2020, Trend reports citing Wood Mackenzie research and consulting company. “Global upstream spend is up from lows of $450 billion in 2016 and 2017, having collapsed from the 2014 peak of $750 billion. But not by much. We think spend will recover to over $500 billion by 2020, driven by the US L48, a flurry of deepwater projects and a new phase of LNG investment. It’s a sluggish recovery, geographically very patchy, and a long way from being called a new boom,” said the company. “Oil and gas companies are back in the money. Operationally and financially, all lights are green – production is up, costs are down and margins are up. The Majors are generating more free cash flow at $60 per barrel than they were five years ago at $100.” Wood Mackenzie believes that the same can’t be said for the service sector, which has continued to have a miserable time of it since the 2014 bust. “Returns for many service companies are still scraping along well below pre-crash levels.” “Global upstream investment is only slowly pulling out of the downturn. The service sector thrives in an upcycle. Upstream companies have only just recovered from the ghastly hangover brought on by overspend in the last boom. The industry is determined not to lapse again, is religiously sticking to capital discipline and is shunning growth. The more discipline, the more the stock market seems to reward for returning surplus capital to shareholders. It’s symbiotic and could last for some time.” There has been rationalization – global capacity across the sector reduced by around 25 percent on average since 2014, according to Wood Mackenzie. “Yet capacity utilization is still modest, based on key indicators like jackup rigs (70 percent) and floating production system fabricators (50 percent). The spend increase we forecast won’t tighten most markets and bring back pricing power. More capacity needs to come out.” ?
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