石油圈中國石化新聞網訊 據RIGZONE網3月11日消息 隨著美國頁巖油的蓬勃發展，歐佩克的市場力量將持續喪失直至2025年左右。 國際能源署表示，到2024年，由于伊朗和委內瑞拉的石油產量下降，歐佩克的原油開采能力實際上將會縮減。隨著競爭對手的增加，在此期間，全球每年從歐佩克獲得的石油需求不會恢復到2016年以前的水平，即歐佩克開始減產之前。 對于歐佩克來說，該報告可能是一個發人深省的數據。過去兩年，歐佩克一直在限制產量，以避免全球供應過剩，從而壓低油價。雖然減產基本上達到了這些目標，但也激活了美國頁巖油的發展，使該國成為全球最大的原油生產國。 國際能源署執行主任Fatih Birol周一在休斯頓的CERAWeek能源會議上表示：“美國頁巖氣革命的第二波浪潮即將來臨。這將動搖國際油氣貿易流動，對地緣政治產生深遠影響?！?總部位于巴黎的國際能源署在其中期報告中表示，美國的能源擴張將繼續進行，到2024年，美國將占全球產能增長的70%。該機構表示，到那時，該國可能每天出口900萬桶石油，超過俄羅斯的出口能力，接近沙特阿拉伯。 由于美國的供應增長將得到巴西、挪威和圭亞那的補充，國際能源署大幅上調了對歐佩克以外國家新原油的預測，預計到2024年將達到每日330萬桶。 因此，歐佩克14個成員國對石油需求的估計被大幅下調。到2024年，全球對歐佩克原油的需求仍將低于減產前的水平。IEA表示，歐佩克將需要在未來10年繼續維持目前的產量限制。 吳慧丹 摘譯自 RIGZONE 原文如下： OPEC Will Be Squeezed by US Shale Until Mid-2020s OPEC’s loss of market power to what was once its biggest customer will continue until the middle of the next decade as U.S. shale oil thrives. By 2024, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ capacity to pump crude will actually shrink because of declines in Iran and Venezuela, according to the International Energy Agency. As rivals grow, the amount of oil the world needs from the cartel each year won’t recover to pre-2016 levels — before OPEC started cutting production — throughout the period. The report may be sobering reading for OPEC, which has capped its production for the past two years to stave off a global glut that would depress prices. Although its cutbacks have mostly achieved those aims, they’ve also invigorated the shale-oil boom in the U.S., helping the country become the world’s biggest crude producer. “The second wave of the U.S. shale revolution is coming,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director said on Monday at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston. “This will shake up international oil and gas trade flows, with profound implications for geopolitics.” America’s energy expansion will proceed, accounting for 70 percent of the growth in global production capacity through to 2024, the Paris-based IEA said in its medium-term report. By that time, the nation could be able to export 9 million barrels a day, exceeding the export capabilities of Russia and coming close to those of Saudi Arabia, the agency said. With U.S. supply growth to be supplemented by Brazil, Norway and Guyana, the IEA substantially raised forecasts for new crude from outside OPEC, by as much as 3.3 million barrels a day by 2024. As a result, estimates for the oil needed from OPEC’s 14 members were slashed. By 2024, the world will still need less crude from the group than it was pumping before production cuts started. That suggests that OPEC will need to persist with its current output restraints into the next decade, the IEA said. ?
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