
這家世界上最賺錢的石油公司正在悄然發生著變化……
來自 | 經濟學人
編譯 | 寧采臣 杜威
前任CEO蒂勒森按規定于今年初正式退休,但特朗普的點名指派卻將蒂勒森推至風口浪尖,他掌管的??松梨跊]能逃過輿論的漩渦,新CEO Woods一時間也成為熱點人物。
下游專家出任新CEO
路透社消息稱,蒂勒森離開后,??松梨诙聦⑹S?2人。事實上,蒂勒森和??松梨诰M铀龠@一流程,前者相信越快卸任CEO才能越快進入國務卿這一角色,而??松梨趧t希望盡快任命新掌門,才能盡可能地降低對業務發展的影響。于是,Woods提前進入了我們的視野。
維基百科上,對Darren Woods的介紹只有寥寥幾行字,主要的內容是他的生辰年月,而??松梨诠竟俜綄λ慕榻B更為簡短:今年52歲。據了解,Woods與蒂勒森一樣,都畢業于德克薩斯大學,并于1992年進入??松梨诠?,曾就職于??松梨跓捰团c供應公司、??松梨诨瘜W公司和??松梨趪H公司。
不過,Woods一直工作于下游領域,對煉化、運輸、化學品等業務非常熟悉,還曾擔任過??松梨诰珶捄瓦\輸部門負責人,此前從未接觸過上游勘探和生產領域。但??松梨谧鳛槿蜃畲笊鲜杏推?,勘探和生產領域才是“重頭戲”,“下游專家”Woods能否帶領其走出增長滯緩的困局,業內為他捏了一把冷汗。
現在的??松梨诒环Q為“瘸腿巨人”
今年1月31日的公司報表顯示,??松梨诘睦麧櫪^續下降。從2014年開始,公司股票就一直在下跌,現在一年的利潤比不上過去一個季度的利潤,甚至比1999年兼并Mobil之前還要低。

由于這兩年油價大幅下降,??松梨诤推渌蟮氖凸疽粯?,公司利潤率大幅下降,甚至需要借錢去維持股票分紅和繼續勘探開發的投資需求。去年4月,標準普爾剝奪了其AAA評級,降至AA+,這是自上世紀30年代美國大蕭條以來,??松梨谑状问AA評級。
在商業環境如此惡劣的時候,??松梨谠诿绹烊粴獾捻椖坑譁p記20億美元。預計在接下來的幾個星期,公司的原油儲量會從250億桶下降到204億桶,因為原油的購買成本太高,增加這46億桶則無法盈利。
該公司股價表現目前比雪佛龍低20%,并且同樣低于于歐洲的同行們,包括殼牌,道達爾,英國石油。??松梨诘臉I務規模和工程技藝,無疑是登頂石油行業的最大助力,然油價萎靡至今,行業發展動力不足,該公司在這場低迷周期中日漸憔悴。
為了彌補上述問題,??松梨谠噲D將Permian Basin的油氣產量翻倍。為使產量從每天14萬桶增加到每天35萬桶,公司今年做出的第一個交易就是用66億美元現金加股票的方式購買Woods區塊。相對于俄羅斯北極圈高成本的勘探項目,??松梨谝徺I更多低成本的頁巖氣區塊來豐富自己的資產組合。
而對比雪佛龍,??松梨谒坪跤致赃d一籌。雪佛龍從20世紀20年代就占有Permian的一些區塊,擁有超過200萬英畝的土地,而??松梨谧罱毁徺I了25萬英畝。Permian區塊的頁巖油收益很不錯,然而??松梨谕ㄟ^收購了XTO能源,將賭注押在了頁巖氣上面。由于氣價低于油價,??松梨陔y以獲得理想中的高額回報。
Woods的機遇和挑戰
Woods掌管??松梨谥?,需要直面??松梨诘拈L期發展問題。
特朗普對化石燃料的青睞有加,讓石油業再次燃起了希望,而有了蒂勒森的“庇護”,??松梨诘臉I務前景預估更是不知好了多少倍。美國政治新聞網站《政客》撰文稱,即將出任國務卿的蒂勒森,勢必會回報“老東家”,特朗普對化石燃料的大舉推動被認為是??松梨谥卣衿旃牡淖罴褭C遇。
而且,Persian海灣是??松梨谖磥淼臋C遇所在,這里勘探開采原油的成本比較低廉,只不過存在長期的地緣政治風險和比較激勵的商業競爭。
機遇伴隨著挑戰,也伴隨著危機。
Woods接手公司后面臨的一個挑戰是氣候問題?;茉吹陌l展前景需要進一步討論,環保主義者和一些投資人要求公開公司具體項目發展情況的透明度。2月21日,公司任命了曾經在聯合國任職的氣象學家Susan Avery進入董事會。一些輿論認為這不過是一種做秀,但是這種進步的舉動確實會悄然改變公司在對應氣候變化方面問題的思考方式。
公司還面臨一個潛在的危機,即公司的前任老板和現任總統親密的工作關系。這可能導致公司不能繼續堅持自身優秀的傳統。近期,??松梨诘母邔优c共和黨的國會議員共同提出廢除一項條款,旨在減少公司在富裕國家的腐敗問題并且督促公司對國外政府公布所有的付款明細。
也許Woods還沉浸在當選的喜悅中,但他面臨的局面并不樂觀。能否扭轉蒂勒森留下的“爛攤子”局面,我們還未可知,但是可以知曉的是,??松梨诓煌酝靥岚瘟讼掠螌<覟楣咀罡邲Q策人,從側面說明,該公司開始越來越重視煉化行業。
WITH an institutional culture that lies somewhere between the marines and the boy scouts, ExxonMobil tends to avoid personality cults. Even so, it is surprising how little is known about Darren Woods, the chief executive who last month succeeded Rex Tillerson, America’s new secretary of state. Mr Woods’s Wikipedia biography is a few lines long. Rather than reveal the year of his birth, ExxonMobil just says he is 52. Never mind: the most significant fact about him is that he comes from the refining and chemicals side of the business, which hums along so efficiently that ExxonMobil is widely considered the world’s best “integrated” oil company. Yet it is upstream—the exploration and production part—where his hardest tasks lie.
On January 31st the company reported another year of plunging profits, which have buffeted its share price since 2014 (see chart). It earned less in a year than it used to earn in a quarter, and also less than Exxon made before its $80bn merger with Mobil in 1999. Profits among its “Big Oil” peers have likewise been clobbered by falling oil prices over the past two and a half years. It is also not alone in having to borrow heavily to meet its dividend and investment obligations; last year it lost its coveted AAA credit rating.
Even so, it was a surprise that it took a $2bn hit on the value of some natural-gas assets in America; in the past it has avoided such write-downs. In coming weeks, it is expected to remove up to 4.6bn barrels of North American crude from its 25bn barrels of proved reserves, because they are too costly to produce profitably. That will be yet another rare occurrence.
It will add to a sense that ExxonMobil is struggling to find low-cost sources of oil production to prepare it for a world of potential oversupply. That impression has led its shares to lag behind those of Chevron, its biggest American rival, by 20% in the past year, as well as those of European peers, Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Total. Lysle Brinker, head of oil-company research at IHS Energy, a consultancy, says that, although historically ExxonMobil’s shares have traded at a higher premium to the value of its assets than its big rivals, in the past year “Chevron has overtaken it”.
In an effort to redress the problem, the company’s first deal in the Woods era has been a $6.6bn stock-and-cash purchase aimed at more than doubling its output in the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico, to 350,000 barrels a day from 140,000. ExxonMobil hopes that acquiring more shale deposits will boost the proportion of oil and gas in its portfolio that is relatively quick and inexpensive to produce, compared with more costly and complex projects in places like the Russian Arctic. A potential boon is a bumper discovery in the oceans off Guyana, in South America.
Chevron has been far luckier. It clung onto legacy oilfields in the Permian that go back to the 1920s, and has 2m acres there, compared with the 250,000 recently bought by ExxonMobil. It has fared better from shale oil, whereas ExxonMobil bet big on shale gas via a $31bn merger in 2010 with XTO Energy. Since then gas assets have become even less valuable than oil ones, leaving ExxonMobil struggling to make amends.
An alternative for Mr Woods would be to do deals in the Persian Gulf, where oil is also cheap to produce but where there are rising competitive and geopolitical pressures. Mr Brinker notes that state-owned oil companies are nowadays offering less lucrative joint ventures to Western firms. A looming privatisation is likely to make Saudi Aramco, the only oil company that is bigger than ExxonMobil, into an even stronger competitor.
Adding to the challenges, Mr Woods takes over the company at a time when climate change is raising questions about future demand for fossil fuels. Environmental activists and increasing numbers of investors are demanding more transparency. On February 1st the firm appointed Susan Avery, an atmospheric scientist who formerly advised the UN, to its board. Some dismissed this as a publicity stunt. But it could be a bold move to shape its thinking on climate change.
One danger is that with its former boss standing shoulder to shoulder with Donald Trump, the firm reverts to its habit of insisting that it knows best. Many will be disheartened that, under pressure from companies including ExxonMobil, Republicans in Congress were this week planning to scrap a rule, aimed at reducing corruption in oil-rich countries, that forces firms to publish all payments to foreign governments. There is no reason to doubt ExxonMobil’s adherence to what it terms its “culture of integrity”. But it is increasingly important for oil firms not just to behave like good global citizens, but to be seen to do so, too.
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