任重道遠！為何美國天然氣凈出口之路不好走

Due to the implementation of the ‘Clean Power Plan’ and the introduction of stricter environmental controls, the power sector is reducing its exposure to coal and becoming more reliant on gas. As a result, the electricity sector now accounts for c30% of gas demand in the US, and this is set to increase further as more coal-fired generation is replaced by cleaner gas-fired capacity.

However the US is going to struggle to meet this demand. Due to the decline in the oil price over the past two years, investment in US shale has been slashed as companies have focused on debt repayment rather than capex. As a result, gas production is now forecast to go into decline later this year.

Weather is playing an important part in the demand outlook. A mild winter and a hot summer have resulted in rapidly depleting inventory against a backdrop of stagnating, if not declining production.

Furthermore, the expected conversion of El Ni?o into La Ni?a could play a key part in the market’s future. If this change is to happen, the US is likely to experience a harsh, cold winter this year which will put more pressure on inventories and therefore prices.

This will also have an impact on the LNG sector. Since 2010, we have seen a global gas glut brought about by excessive construction of new LNG facilities. For LNG to work, projects need large supplies of cheap gas. Yes, we have seen initial shipments of US LNG targeting the European gas market, but it is unlikely that the US will become a major exporter.

Given low global LNG prices and the fact that US LNG can only target the South American and European markets due to high transportation costs to Asia markets, the construction of new production facilities has not been warranted and projects have been shelved as result. If gas prices are increasing and LNG margins are compressed further, then investment in new projects will become even less economic.

Until there is more visibility and greater clarity on how global gas prices are going to play out, then we can expect to see further projects being shelved (particularly in the US), ahead of final investment decisions being made and further capex being committed.

In addition, the industry’s ability to lower capex and actually deliver projects on budget is paramount. The industry could ‘live’ with cost overruns in the old, higher price environment, but this is clearly no longer the case and is putting off investment in the LNG sector.

In terms of the winners in this scenario, gas producers stand to benefit from the rising gas price as it will improve their flow situation. But for the downstream users, it is bad news. As they’re being forced by environmental regulations to increase gas usage in an increasing gas price environment, the power producers will see their margins impacted unless rising costs can be passed onto customers.